“The Show Me State” by Greg Dempson.

Chiefs + 10 now +9½ or +9 home vs. Broncos. O/U 46½, 46.

The license plate slogan for the state of Missouri is, “The Show Me State.” Well, when it pertains to professional football neither the Chiefs nor the Rams have shown anything after three weeks of play. Kansas City has lost by the scores of 17–10, 23–08 and 38–14. The Chiefs have yet to exceed 14 points and have scored only 32 combined points in three games for an average of approximately 11 points per game while allowing an average of 26 points per game. That’s not a good thing when facing the high powered offense of the Denver Broncos. Denver is averaging 38 points per game after three weeks vs. an average allowed points of 28 per contest. Can Kansas City jump start their offense vs. a suspect Denver defense? A noted, the total opened at 46½ points and has been bet down to 46 while Denver opened at –10 points and is now –9 or –9½ points. It has been a long time since Kansas City was a home dog of 7 or more points, a very L–O–N–G time, in week 11, 1988 they were + 7 when hosting the Bengals, not only did the Chiefs cover they won straight up 31–28. In a strike replacement game in 1987 (week 6) Kansas City was + 12 vs. the Broncos and they lost straight up but covered ATS, 26–17.  The over may be the way to go in this game as  I know that all road teams (Broncos,) with a poor turnover defense (forcing one or less turnovers per game after three consecutive games whereby they forced one or less turnovers per game, are 49 – 21 ATS = 70% to the over and +25.90-units the past 10 seasons.

The Rams +9½ now +9 home vs. the Bills, O/U 42½ now 41½ points.

What can be said about a team that has been out scored 38–03, 41–13 and 37–13? As bad as Kansas City is, the Rams are worse! They are averaging slightly less than 10 points per game on offense while allowing an average of 38.67 points per game. It is always tough to back a bad team, it’s my take that the players have quit on their coach and Linehan looks lost at times. Keep in mind that no team is as bad as it appears week after week and when play on underdogs of 3½ to 10 points (Rams) a pathetic team that’s outscored by their opponents by 10 or more points/ per game, after scoring 17 (or less points) in 3 straight games we are 90–50 = 64% ATS and +35-units since 1983. The odds maker has not adjusted the line to the extent I thought he would as St. Lois is still getting single-digits, my number on this game was –12. The total offers a better opportunity than the side and that just might be the free NFL pick this week, check back later in the week.
So, when will the Chiefs or the Rams show you or show me anything? Kansas City might have a chance for a home week in week 16 when they host the Dolphins. The Rams face the NFC East this year, not an easy task for any team let alone St. Louis. Perhaps week 13 will produce a “W” when the Rams host Miami. Believe me, Scott Linehan will be long gone at that juncture of the season.

Each team is a mess, the Chiefs are re building and the Rams are most likely one or two more loses away from re hiring! My suggestion is to resurrect Jim Morrison The Doors lead singer, and never mind, “The Show Me State,” simply, “Show Me The Way to The Next Whiskey Bar!”