Wagering on Football’s Money Line vs. the Point Spread.
By Greg Dempson
The equalizer for the sports book is the line or point spread, and that number; or point spread equalizer that gamblers bet “into” sometimes does not bear any semblance as to what a gamblers original wager or intention was. For example, if a gambler wanted to play a big favorite but a prohibitive (high) line backed said player off the chalk, perhaps the number had done its job! He or she might now consider a wager on the underdog, or a teaser. (They don’t call them teasers for nothing!)
When a team is a double digit dog most would not bet the underdog on the money line but opt for taking the points. The short fall when playing the money line vs. the point spread when a team is a double digit favorite; is the money at risk to earn a substantial return. Let’s assume team “A” is laying 13 points and you wish to simply bet the favorite on the money line; you would have to put up $ 650.00 to win $ 100.00. If you felt comfortable that the underdog could win straight up them your pay back on $ 100.00 would be $ 450.00. These numbers are not set in stone and the odds on the money line will vary from book to book; so shop around. The money line on college football will often vary from the NFL money line. The same sports book that I quote from above would have you lay $ 550.00 to win $ 100.00 on a 13 point College football favorite while the payout would be $ 375.00.
Two well know examples of huge underdogs winning straight up on the money line were the Jets in Super Bowl III. Incidentally, I have three different lines on that game, Baltimore – 17½, – 18 and – 19 points. I do not know if there was a money line offered in that game, but it was a Super Bowl so I am almost certain the New York bookies would have offered a money line. If you are asked to “put up” $550.00 to win $100.00 on a 13 point favorite, an 18 or 19 point favorite would be prohibitive and for those that laid the wood and backed the Colts, in Super Bowl III (and couldn’t settle up after the loss,) when “Rocky” came to collect, well, you get the picture!
The Patriots defeat of the Rams in the Super Bowl, played in New Orleans did have a money line and it did vary somewhat from book to book. Once again who would risk putting up more than 7 – 1? You’d be better off risking a buck on the dog rather than over wager on prop bets.
Here are examples of two different books and the money line they offer on small favorites.
Book A.
- 2½ points – 1.40 vs. a dog payout of + 1.20.
- 3 points – 1.55 vs. a dog payout of + 1.35.
- 3½ points – 1.75 vs. a dog payout of + 1.55.
- 4 points – 2.00 vs. a dog payout of + 1.70.
- 4½ points – 2.20 vs. a dog payout of + 1.80.
- 5 or – 5½ points – 2.40 vs. a dog payout of + 1.90.
Book B.
- 2½ points – 1.55 vs. a dog payout of + 1.35.
- 3 points – 1.55 vs. a dog payout of + 1.35.
- 3½ points – 1.65 vs. a dog payout of + 1.45.
- 4 points – 2.00 vs. a dog payout of + 1.80.
- 5 or – 5½ points – 2.40 vs. a dog payout of + 2.00.
The above two comparisons reveal that Book A requires you to risk 1.40 on a 2½ point favorite vs. Book B that demands 1.55 for that same 2½ point favorite. Obviously you would play the favorite at book A and bet the dog (if you decided to wager on the underdog) at book B as the return is 15 cents higher for each dollar wagered.
The amount of dollars at risk when playing the favorite increases the higher the point spread and the underdog outright winner payout also increases when the line moves higher. Is it a worthwhile investment to play the money line as opposed to the point spread? As with any situation; one should research how small favorites of – 3 or less perform straight up vs. the point spread. A 3 point favorite that won by exactly 3 points simply returns your money when laying the points but a risk of – 1.55 returns 1.00.
I looked at a particular year and took a sampling of favorites of – 6 or more points. Book A required you to lay – 2.80 while Book B asked for 2.70. In the 50 games sampled the favorite won 41 out of 50 of the contests straight up, that’s 82%. The underdog went 26 – 24 ATS getting 6 or more but won only 9 straight up. The situation can vary from year to year especially with parity. Now 82% or 41 out of 50 straight up wins is impressive but consider that a hundred dollars a game result in a profit of $ 4,100.00 vs. 9 losers at – 2.70 X 9 = a negative loss of $ 2,430.00. The overall profit is $ 4,100.00 - $ 2,430.00 or + $ 1,670.00. A money line player would have to win 37 out of 50 games straight up to produce a profit of a meager + $ 190.00.
Betting the Money Line as well as Taking the Points.
Another option is playing a percentage of your bankroll on the money line and also backing the underdog in the same contest. For example if you were betting $ 250.00 at Book B on the money line an outright win by the underdog would result in a return of twice your original wager or a payback of $ 250.00.
So you’re on the money line, let’s assume that Book A offered a free half-point on the same contest. You could then risk $ 550.00 to win $ 500.00 on the dog at + 6 points, moving your number from 5½ points to a key number of + 6 points. If your money line wager lost and the dog were defeated by less than 6 points you would lose your $ 250.00 money line wager but win the point spread wager of $ 500.00 for a net profit of $ 250.00. Of course the downside to this wager would be the underdog losing by more than 6 points. That would result in a net loss of $ 800.00. If you had planned to risk $ 800.00 on the selection and lay 11/10 risking $ 880.00 to win $ 800.00, at least you would have saved the “juice” by playing the money line for a portion of the wager as well as taking the 6 points. That saving of $ 80.00 might appear insignificant; but over the course of the season, any edge you have vs. the sports book with regards to dollars at risk will benefit you; 8 lost wagers X $ 80.00 is a significant wager, $ 640.00 at a hundred a unit is risking more than 5-units on a game.
NFL and College football money line conversion chart.
FAVORED BY NFL COLLEGE MONEYLINE MONEYLINE
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2 -130/+110 -130/+110
2½ -140/+120 -140/+120
3 -155/+135 -155/+135
3½ -175/+155 -175/+165
4 -200/+170 -185/+165
4½ -220/+180 -200/+170
5 or 5½ -240/+190 -220/+180
6 -270/+210 -240/+190
6½ -300/+220 -270/+210
7 -330/+250 -300/+220
7½, 8 or 8½ -360/+280 -330/+250
9 or 9½ -400/+300 -360/+280
10 -450/+325 -400/+300
11 -550/+375 -450/+325
12 -600/+400 -500/+350
13 -650/+450 -550/+375
The above information (in general) is what Off Shore books and Las Vegas casinos use to convert a point spread to a money line.
