The Not So Dirty Dozen Revisited by Greg Dempson.
The word parity is bandied about almost as off as, “They didn’t win straight up but they covered.”
Free agency occurred in 1993 and during the past 15 years it has certainly “leveled” the playing field. Here’s a classic example as to how parity has shrunk the points spread even at this early juncture of the season. From 1977 until 1992 there were 8 occurrences in a 14 year time frame when referring to this particular system. (I excluded the 1982 season as there was no week three due to the players strike plus the 1987 week three games were actually played in week four with replacement players as week three contests that would have been played with the “normal” starting line-up of players was canceled.) From week three of the 1993 season until week three of 2008 there have been only four occurrences, and those four games were played between 1993 – 1999, so it has been eight years since this scenario is “live” in two contests this Sunday. Here’s how this situation sets-up, we want to play on all road underdogs or more than 12 points (applies to the Bengals and Dolphins) that started the season at 0 – 2 straight up when matched up vs. a foe (applies to the Giants and Patriots) that didn’t score more than 30 points (back-to-back) in their first two games. This system is 13 - 0 ATS since 1977. Let's examine the Cincinnati and New York contest first. The Bengals have been anemic on offense and some what respectable on defense, however the offense of the Ravens and Titans is no where near as potent as the offense of the New York Giants. The Bengals simply want to get into the win column so there is no looking ahead for them. As for the Giants, they have a week three bye before playing a decimated Seahawks team. New York is 12 – 7 ATS before their bye week, 8 – 1 ATS vs. division foes, 5 – 5 ATS vs. Conference and Inter Conference teams. The Giants do have the bulls eye on their backs as they are the defending Super Bowl Champions. The “Jints” were only 4 – 4 ATS at home last season and since Tom Coughlin has taken over the head coaching position in 2004, New York is a meager 18 – 15 ATS in regular season home contests. And since Coughlin arrived to lead the Giants they are only 3 – 6 ATS when home favorites of – 6 or more points. Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis has gone 20 – 10 ATS on the road when playing with six or less days of rest. Will the Bengals get a points spread cover and maintain this systems perfect 13 – 0 record? Lewis has only been a road dog of 10 or more points twice since becoming the Bengals head coach, (2 – 0 ATS.) Can he improve his record to 3 - 0? I know one thing I won’t be laying those 13 points!
Dolphins @ Patriots.
As for the Dolphins and Patriots, I note that when you play against a team (Patriots) that out scored their opponents by 7 or more points per game you are 66 - 35 = 65% ATS the past decade. I also know that when we play against teams (Patriots) that out gained their opponents by .75 yards per play last season we are 40 - 18 = 69% ATS the past 10 years. Unfortunately Miami is a work in progress that has a long way to go. The Dolphins are only 3 - 13 ATS after playing their last game on the road and 0 - 8 ATS their last eight when played in the first month of the season.
As stated, you have to be willing to bet ugly and I'm not wiling to go that route this weekend so it will be El Paso for yours truly (no not the UTEP Miners,) El Paso on the Bengals and Dolphins.
