NFL Week One Over System, Lions at Bears? by Greg Dempson.
This system has not performed well of late with the exception being home teams when the line's - 7 to - 10 points. As you'll see in the chart below, the Over is 22 - 02 = 92% when - 7 to - 10 points vs. an overall record of 28 - 08 or 78%. Please note the system is a 12 - 7 to the over this Millennium.
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Chart # 117. When a week one home team is favored by 7 or more points and the over/under is greater than 42 points; play all games over the total.
W = week, S = site & W/L = won or lost. * * Indicates a Monday night game.
Note, the Broncos line opened at – 7 & held at 7 until Wednesday in the 2001 Monday night contest. The line was bet down to – 6 ½ & - 6 at some books. In 2000 the Rams also opened at - 7
I have also posted the line moves on all of the totals from 1998 till present.
28–08 = 78% ATS when playing the over.
22–02 = 92% to the over when home team’s favored from 7–10 points & noted in bold.
11–03 = 78.6% ATS in division play.
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|
#
|
Year
|
W
|
H. Team
|
Line
|
S
|
Opponent
|
Score
|
Over/Under #
|
W/L
|
|
1.
|
1991
|
1
|
Bills
|
- 7
|
H
|
Dolphins
|
35 – 31
|
43
|
won
|
|
2.
|
1991
|
1
|
Redskins
|
- 12
|
H
|
Lions
|
45 – 00
|
42½
|
won
|
|
3.
|
1992
|
1
|
Oilers
|
- 12½
|
H
|
Steelers
|
24 – 29
|
44½
|
won
|
|
4.
|
1992
|
1
|
Bills
|
- 11
|
H
|
LA Rams
|
40 – 07
|
44½
|
won
|
|
5.
|
1994
|
1
|
Broncos
|
- 7
|
H
|
Chargers
|
34 – 37
|
46
|
won
|
|
6.
|
1994
|
1
|
SF 49ers**
|
- 7
|
H
|
Raiders
|
44 – 14
|
47½
|
won
|
|
7.
|
1996
|
1
|
SF 49ers
|
- 11
|
H
|
Saints
|
27 – 11
|
43½
|
lost
|
|
8.
|
1997
|
1
|
Patriots
|
- 7½
|
H
|
Chargers
|
41 – 07
|
43
|
won
|
|
9.
|
1997
|
1
|
Lions
|
- 7½
|
H
|
Falcons
|
28 – 17
|
42½
|
won
|
|
01.
|
1997
|
1
|
Bengals
|
- 8
|
H
|
Cardinals
|
24 – 21
|
42½
|
won
|
|
11.
|
1997
|
1
|
Packers**
|
- 16
|
H
|
Bears
|
38 – 24
|
42½
|
won
|
|
12.
|
1998
|
1
|
Packers
|
- 9½
|
H
|
Lions
|
38 – 19
|
44½ firm
|
won
|
|
13.
|
1998
|
1
|
SF 49ers
|
- 8½
|
H
|
NY Jets
|
36 – 30
|
43½/44
|
won
|
|
14.
|
1998
|
1
|
Broncos**
|
- 7½
|
H
|
Patriots
|
27 – 21
|
46½/44½
|
won
|
|
15.
|
1999
|
1
|
Packers
|
- 8½
|
H
|
Raiders
|
28 – 24
|
42½/43/42½
|
won
|
|
16.
|
1999
|
1
|
NY Jets
|
- 8
|
H
|
Patriots
|
28 – 30
|
45/44½
|
won
|
|
17.
|
1999
|
1
|
Seahawks
|
- 9½
|
H
|
Lions
|
28 – 20
|
42/42½
|
won
|
|
18.
|
2000
|
1
|
Falcons
|
- 7
|
H
|
SF 49ers
|
36 – 28
|
46½/46
|
won
|
|
19.
|
2000
|
1
|
Redskins
|
- 10½
|
H
|
Panthers
|
20 – 17
|
47½/47
|
lost
|
|
20.
|
2000
|
1
|
SL Rams**
|
- 7
|
H
|
Broncos
|
41 – 36
|
48½/49/49½
|
won
|
|
21.
|
2001
|
1
|
Vikings
|
- 10½
|
H
|
Panthers
|
13 – 24
|
46/45/45½
|
lost
|
|
22.
|
2001
|
1
|
Broncos**
|
- 7
|
H
|
Giants
|
31 – 20
|
43/44
|
won
|
|
23.
|
2002
|
1
|
Redskins
|
- 7
|
H
|
Cardinals
|
31 – 23
|
46½/46/45/44½
|
won
|
|
24.
|
2002
|
1
|
Packers
|
- 7
|
H
|
Falcons
|
37 – 34
|
42/42½
|
won
|
|
25.
|
2004
|
1
|
SL Rams
|
-10½
|
H
|
Cardinals
|
17 – 10
|
44½/45/46
|
lost
|
|
26.
|
2004
|
1
|
Eagles
|
- 9/-8’
|
H
|
Giants
|
36 – 17
|
42½ /42
|
won
|
|
27
|
2005
|
1
|
Panthers
|
- 7
|
H
|
Saints
|
20 – 23
|
44½
|
lost
|
|
28
|
2005
|
1
|
Patriots
|
- 7½
|
H
|
Raiders
|
30 – 23
|
49½
|
won
|
|
29
|
2006
|
1
|
Cardinals
|
7½/9½
|
H
|
SF 49ers
|
34 – 27
|
44
|
won
|
|
30
|
2008
|
1
|
Steelers
|
-6½/7
|
H
|
Texans
|
38 – 17
|
43½ /44
|
won
|
|
31
|
2008
|
1
|
Patriots
|
- 15½
|
H
|
Chiefs
|
17 – 10
|
48/43
|
lost
|
|
32
|
2008
|
1
|
Eagles
|
-7/8½
|
H
|
Rams
|
38 – 03
|
44/43½
|
lost
|
|
33
|
2008
|
1
|
Chargers
|
-10/-9
|
H
|
Panthers
|
26 – 24
|
42½/41
|
won
|
|
34
|
2008
|
1
|
Colts
|
- 9/10½
|
H
|
Bears
|
13 – 29
|
44½/43
|
lost
|
|
35
|
2009
|
1
|
Saints
|
- 12/-14
|
H
|
Lions
|
45 – 27
|
48½ /50
|
won
|
|
36
|
2009
|
1
|
Patriots
|
-10/-13
|
H
|
Bills
|
25 – 24
|
46½/47½
|
won
|
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