Good Bad and Ugly pt.4 Epilogue

Good Bad and Ugly
pt.4
The Epilogue

When you combine the 3 charts they have gone 20 - 3 ATS. There is no crystal ball when gambling so it's interesting to see how our play on and play against teams performed the rest of the season. As I have said repeatedly, I don't just utilize systems as my only method of determining a selection. Sound logic must be applied. If you go and "back-fit" scores and odds to invent a system, you'll get hurt in the long run. Here's the 3 charts again and a brief analysis or review of how the good, bad and ugly teams fared at seasons end.

Part One, Chart A.

When a team started the season at 0 – 3 straight up and are a week 4 road dog Vs a foe that’s 3 – 0 straight up; play against the road dog.

.N/P in the line box for the early year’s means not published.
7– 1 ATS when playing against the road team.

#	0 – 3 Team Results	Year	WK.	Play Against Team	Line	Site	Play On Team	Score	ATS
1.	00–30, 13–20, 10–30	1974	4	Baltimore Colts	N/P	at	Patriots	03–42	won
2.	00–07, 14–22, 07–36	1975	4	N. E. Patriots	N/P	at	Bengals	10–27	won
3.	17–21, 07–23, 28–37	1977	4	K. C. Chiefs	N/P	at	Broncos	07–23	won
4.	00–14, 26–29, 10–13	1979	4	Baltimore Colts	N/P	at	Steelers	13–17	lost
5	10–26, 07–17, 30–40	1981	4	Redskins	+9	at	Eagles	13–36	won
6.	27–28, 16–35, 28–44	1985	4	Falcons	+9½	at	L. A. Rams	06–17	won
7.	10–24, 13–21, 06–23	1992	4	S. D. Chargers	+11	at	Oilers	00–21	won
8.	24–38, 24–27, 07–32	1997	4	Bears	+12½	at	Patriots	03–31	won

When reviewing Chart A, we played against an 0 - 3 team. A lesson I learned a long time ago is don't expect good things to happen when you're wagering on a bad team by blindly assuming the poor performer had to win sooner or later. Obviously we couldn't predict the future with those games that were played in any of the charts, so let's review how the good, bad & ugly teams performed from week 4 until seasons end for each year.

Chart A revisited. Tracking the 0 - 3 Losers Vs Our Play on 3 - 0 Winners.

1974, The Colts started 0 - 3, finished at 2 - 12 Vs a 3 - 0 start and a 7 - 7 finish for the Patriots.
1975, The Patriots started 0 - 3, finished 3 - 11 Vs a 3 - 0 start & an 11 - 3 season for the Bengals.
1977, The Chiefs started 0 - 3, finished 2 - 12 Vs a 3 - 0 start & a 12 - 2 season for the Broncos.
1979, The Colts started 0 - 3, finished 5 - 11 Vs a 3 - 0 start & a 12 - 4 season for the Steelers.
1981, The Redskins started 0 - 3, finished 8 - 8 Vs a 3 - 0 start & a 10 - 6 season for the Eagles.
1985, The Falcons started 0 - 3, finished 4 - 12 Vs a 3 - 0 start & an 11 - 5 season for the Rams.
1992, The Chargers went 0 - 3, finished 11 - 5 Vs a 3 - 0 start & a 10 - 6 finish for the Redskins.
1997, The Bears went 0 - 3, finished 4 - 12 Vs a 3 - 0 start & a 10 - 6 finish for the Patriots.

The ugly teams won only 39 combined games straight up Vs 83 for our play on teams.

In conclusion, we had a good team Vs an ugly team and went 7 - 1 ATS. Only the Chargers were able to turn their season around, they were the only team to finish above .500 in 1992. Our 3 - 0 teams all won 10 or more games at seasons end except for the 1974, Patriots. Observe who started the season in 1975 at 0 - 3, those very same Patriots.

Part 2, Chart B.

When a team started the season at 0 – 3 straight up and are a week 4 road dog Vs a foe that’s also 0 – 3 straight up; play on the road dog.

7 – 1 ATS when playing on the road team.

#	0–3 Team Results	Year	WK.	Play On Team	Line	Site	Opponent	Score	ATS
1.	16–30, 13–23, 07–31	1975	4	G. B. Packers	N/P	at	Saints	19–20	won
2.	34–40, 19–28, 14–26	1979	4	Saints	N/P	at	S. F. 49ers	30–21	won
3.	10–20, 06–10, 07–17	1983	4	Bengals	+2	at	Buccaneers	23–17	won
4.	20–28, 10–27, 28–31	1994	4	Bengals	+8½	at	Oilers	13–20	won
5	22–24, 13–17, 24–27	1995	4	N. O. Saints	+3	at	N. Y. Giants	29–45	lost
6.	20–23, 00–27, 10–31	1996	4	N. Y. Giants	+2	at	N. Y. Jets	13–06	won
7.	13–20, 10–38, 00–31	1996	4	Arizona Cardinals	+7½	at	Saints	28–14	won
8.	28–30, 03–17, 20–27	1999	4	New York Jets	+5½	at	Broncos	21–13	won

In the above chart, numbered B, it was ugly Vs ugly. I had other reasons for playing on those dogs in chart B, perhaps I'll share that information at another time.

Chart B revisited by tracking our play on 0 - 3 road team.

1975, Packers 0 - 3, finished 4 - 10 Vs an 0 - 3 start & 2 - 12 finish for the Saints.
1976, Saints 0 - 3 start, finished 8 - 8 Vs an 0 - 3 start & 2 - 14 finish for the 49ers.
1983, Bengals 0 - 3 start, finished 7 - 9 Vs an 0 - 3 start & 2 - 14 finish for the Buccaneers.
1994, Bengals 0 - 3 start, finished 3 - 13 Vs an 0 - 3 start & 2 - 14 finish for the Oilers.
1995, Saints, 0 - 3 start, finished 7- 9 Vs an 0 - 3 start & 5 - 11 finish for the Giants.
1996, Giants, 0 - 3 start, finished 6 - 10 Vs an 0 - 3 start & 1 - 15 finish for the Jets.
1996, Cardinals, 0 - 3 start, finished 7 - 9 Vs an 0 - 3 start & 3 -13 finish for the Saints.
1999, Jets, 0 - 3 start, finished 8 - 8 Vs an 0 - 3 start & 6 - 10 finish for the Broncos.

Here is a classic example of throwing up a number on a home team for home field advantage. By playing the dog not only did we cover in all but one game, at seasons end, all our play on teams finished with a better straight up record. Those 8 road dogs in week 4 won 27 more games than the teams we were fading, the home teams.

The play on 0 - 3 road teams concluded the season with 50 combined wins Vs only 23 straight up wins for the home teams.

Were you ever in a football pool and circled the home team just because they were both 0 - 3?

Part 3, Chart C.

When a team started the season at 0 – 3 straight up & are a week 4 road dog of less than 5-points or a road favorite; play against the road foe when the home team won at least 1 game straight up.

6 – 1 ATS when playing against the road team.

#	0–3 Team Results	Year	WK.	0–3 Team	Line	Site	Play On Team	Score	ATS
1.	07–24, 13–16, 19–20	1978	4	S. F. 49ers	N/P	at	N. Y. Giants	10–27	won
2.	14–17, 10–20, 27–37	1980	4	N. Y. Jets	+4½	at	Colts	21–35	won
3.	28–29, 03–13, 21–35	1981	4	N. E. Patriots	+3½	at	Steelers	21–27	won
4.	00–31, 30–31, 10–38	1981	4	N. Y. Jets	+3½	at	Oilers	33–17	lost
5	28–38, 16–31, 13–20	1985	4	Buccaneers	+4½	at	Lions	09–30	won
6.	17–20, 10–27, 14–31	1992	4	N. Y. Jets	-2	at	L. A. Rams	10–18	won
7.	16–21, 19–20, 13–21	2000	4	N. E. Patriots	+3½	at	Dolphins	03–10	won

A review of Chart C.
In the above chart we were playing on the not so bad home team Vs the ugly 0 - 3 road team. Here is how each team performed from week 4 until seasons end.

1978, 49ers, 0 - 3, finished 2 - 14 Vs a 2 - 1 start & 6 - 10 finish for the Giants.
1980, Jets, 0 - 3, finished 4 - 12 Vs an - 2 start & 7 - 9 finish for the Colts.
1981, Patriots, 0 - 3 start, finished 2 - 14 Vs an 1 - 2 start & 8 - 8 finish for the Steelers.
1981, Jets, 0 - 3, finished 10 - 5 - Vs a 2 - 1 start &7 - 9 finish for the Oilers.
1985, Buccaneers, 0 - 3 start, finished 2 - 14 Vs a 2 - 1 start &7 - 9 finish for the Lions.
1992, Jets, 0 - 3 start, finished 4 - 12 Vs an 1- 2 start & 6 - 10 finish for the Rams.
2000, Patriots, 0 - 3 start, finished 5 - 11 Vs a 2 - 1 start & 11 - 5 finish for the Dolphins.

Refer to what I said in the original article, (Part 1) about the Miami Dolphins. I thought the line was a soft number at - 3.5 points. Was I correct? Of all the play on teams in chart 3, only Miami had double digit wins.

Our 0 - 3 play against teams combined for only 29 wins straight up Vs 52 wins for our play on teams.
My thought process by playing on or against the various teams in all 3 charts produced a noticeable straight up margin of victory at seasons end.
The combined straight up record of all our play on teams was 185 wins Vs 91 victories against the teams we faded in the above 3 charts. The teams I backed early in the season won a combined 67% of their games Vs 33% for the faded teams. When it makes sense, it usually makes dollars! To win as a gambler you must be prepared. It is not a part time occupation. I personally went 16 - 2 ATS with my first 18 Best Bets last year in the NFL regular season. I put in a great deal of time and effort into my thought process. For inquires about my late telephone Best Bet selections as well as my entire football package, email me at gdsports@shaw.ca or phone and speak to me personally at 1-877-717-7577.

Good Bad and Ugly pt.4 The Epilogue

Good Bad and Ugly
pt.4
The Epilogue