good,bad,ugly part 3

The Good, The Bad & The Ugly.

Part Three.
By Greg Dempson

Situation # 3, Chart C.

In this situation we are fading the road team as a small dog or road favorite. With home field being worth approximately 3-points, backing the home team is the right play.

When a team started the season at 0 – 3 straight up & are a week 4 road dog of less than 5-points or a road favorite; play against the road foe when the home team won at least 1 game straight up.

Once again we have a team that is winless and on the road dog in week 4 playing a home team that’s 1 – 2 or 2 – 1 straight up. A pivotal game for the home team. With a victory they are back to .500 and remain in the hunt or they stand at 3 – 1 straight up.

Not a lot of plays in this chart either, but playing against the road team has produced a 6 – 1 ATS record. With a limited amount of occurrences, I would never base a play solely on this chart. Of interest is the fact that Miami was only laying 3½-points in week 4 of the 2000 season. Each team closed the previous season on a sour note. Both teams went 2 – 6 in their last 8 regular season games. Miami made the playoffs, New England didn’t. The Dolphins defeated Seattle on the road and then got absolutely destroyed in Jacksonville, 62 – 7. They put that season behind them and were 2 – 1 straight up going into week 4 of the 2000 season. They defeated Seattle 23 – 0, lost in Minnesota 13 – 7 and defeated Baltimore 19 – 6. They were playing great defense. Why they were only laying just 3½-points is still a mystery to me, I had it pegged at - 5½-points. In 1992 the Jets were laying points on the road to the Rams even though they were 0 – 3 and St. Louis were sitting at 1 – 2 straight up. I call this living on last years’ reputation. The Jets made the playoffs in ’91 and lost at Houston. They closed the 1991 season going 3 – 5 in their final 8 games. The Rams lost their last 10 games in 1991. The 1992 Rams defeated the Jets and moved to 2 – 2 while the Jets were 0 – 4 straight up. Every play against team had a better straight up or equal record the previous year during the final 8 games except the Jets when the played at Houston in 1981, and that was the lone loser in Chart C. The lines were not adjusted accordingly based on the reputation of the previous seasons’ record.

N/P in the line box for the early year’s means not published. I am working on two books containing the NFL point-spread history. Stay tuned!

6 – 1 ATS when playing against the road team.

#	0-3 Team Results	Year	Wk	0–3 Team	Line	Site	Play On Team	Score	ATS
1.	07–24, 13–16, 19–20	1978	4	S. F. 49ers	N/P	at	N. Y. Giants	10–27	won
2.	14–17, 10–20, 27– 37	1980	4	N. Y. Jets	+4½	at	Colts	21–35	won
3.	28–29, 03–13, 21–35	1981	4	N. E. Patriots	+3½	at	Steelers	21–27	won
4.	00–31, 30–31, 10–38	1981	4	N. Y. Jets	+3½	at	Oilers	33–17	lost
5	28–38, 16–31, 13–20	1985	4	Buccaneers	+4½	at	Lions	09–30	won
6.	17–20, 10–27, 14–31	1992	4	N. Y. Jets	-2	at	L. A. Rams	10–18	won
7.	16–21, 19–20, 13–21	2000	4	N. E. Patriots	+3½	at	Dolphins	03–10	won