Can Norv Turner turnaround the Oakland Raiders?

When Joe Gibbs left as the Redskins’ head coach in 1992, Richie Petitbon coached the team for one year, the 1993 season.  Richie went 4 – 12 and was gone.  The following season Norv Turner became the Redskins’ head coach.  Prior to becoming the head coach of the Redskins, Norv was the offensive co-coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys from 1991 – 1993 when Dallas won two Super Bowls.  He was the offensive coordinator for the Dolphins the past two seasons and was also offensive coordinator for the Chargers.  Turner began his coaching career in 1985 with the Rams. When he took over for the 4 – 12 Petitbon coached Redskins, Turner went 3 – 13 his first season.  Here is a breakdown of his record as Washington’s head coach:

Year     Record

1994     03 – 13

1995     06 – 10

1996     09 – 07

1997     08 – 07 – 01

1998     06 – 10

1999     10 – 06

2000     07 – 06

Norv’s all time straight up record; 49 – 59 – 1 during the regular season and 1 – 1 in the playoffs. As for an ATS record; Turner went 50 – 57 – 2 ATS in 109 regular season games plus 2 – 0 in the playoffs.  Turner fared better against the spread on the road; under his leadership Washington went 27 – 25 – 2 ATS and when the Redskins were a road dog of more than three points they went 16 – 7 or 69.5% and when getting more than three points vs. non division foes; Turner’s Redskins were road warriors; going 10 – 3 or 77% ATS.  The early week one line has the Raiders as a dog of more than three points at Pittsburgh.

His best year as head coach was in 1999 when the Redskins won their division followed by a first round home playoff victory vs. the Lions before losing to the Buccaneers, 14 – 13.  The ‘Skins should have won that Tampa Bay playoff game, but a botched snap on a field goal attempt at game’s end cost Washington a chance to move on to the Conference finals.

You’ll note his departure was after game 13 during the 2000 season.  Daniel Snyder fired Turner with three games remaining as the Redskins were 7 – 6 with an opportunity to make the playoffs.  I visited my archives and retrieved this quote about Turner’s firing; Snyder said; "This is not personal; it wasn't about Coach Turner or any personalities. It's really a situation where we want to win football games and change is needed. At this point we just really needed to make a change, driven with what I call some serious leadership."
After Turner was fired; Snyder promoted passing game coordinator Terry Robiskie.   Was Snyder right when he fired Turner who was 7 – 6 with three games remaining?  Daniel Snyder should not have fired Norv Turner because the Redskins were still in the playoff hunt; it’s that simple. It doesn’t make sense to fire your head coach when you still have a shot at making the playoffs (in any sport.)

So, Norv Turner returns to the head coaching ranks after a three year sabbatical.  Since assuming the head coaching duties for the Raiders, Norv has added some coaching assistants.  Martin Bayless (Carolina Panthers) joins their staff as special teams’ assistant, while Joe Avezzano, special teams, Jimmy Raye, assistant head coach/offensive coordinator and Jeff Fish, strength and conditioning.

Turner biggest obstacle is the age of the team; there are too many players on this team who should be waiting for induction in Canton, Ohio; Jerry Rice and Tim Brown are future Hall of Fame future inductees as well as Rod Woodson. 

Gone is the West coast offense as The Raiders game plan for the 2004 campaign will a heavy dose of running the ball along with the deep pass; Gannon hasn’t the arm strength or mobility he once had, enter Kerry Collins.  They’ll need more productivity (points) on offense as two years ago Oakland averaged 28.2 points per game.  Last season a 4 – 12 record produced a mere 16.9 points per game and that ranked 26^th in the league and their combined offense ranked 25^th.

Defensive acquisitions during the off season should help; Warren Sapp is joined by other notables as Ted Washington, Ray Buchanan and Dwayne Rudd.  If Ted Washington can remain healthy Oakland will improve in this area; as the Raiders ranked 32 vs. the rush and their overall defense was ranked 30^th.

The Silver and Black are clearly behind in the depth chart department when compared to the Broncos and Chiefs in the AFC West, and two regular season wins vs. the Chargers isn’t an automatic.

Non-division home games on their schedule include Jacksonville, Buffalo and Tennessee, as well as New Orleans and Tampa Bay.  The Raiders also face non-division road teams such as Houston, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Carolina.  At best the Raiders could achieve a 6 – 10 season in my estimation and anything greater than seven wins would be a stretch.

Head coaches that won a Super Bowl, or lead teams that have been to the post season on a yearly basis, often do not take the preseason as seriously as teams with losing records, or a team that has changed head coaches.  When Turner assumed the head coaching duties for the Redskins he went 3 – 1 ATS in his first preseason. And when a head coach has inherited a team with a losing record, often he will try and use the preseason games to instill confidence in the team.  They might play their starters longer or bring some key players back for a goal line stand and usually will perform much better off a previous exhibition blow-out loss.  And speaking of blow-out loses; last season the Raiders played in Dallas and were embarrassed by the Cowboys; 52 – 13.  Oakland plays four exhibition contest this season; they cross the bay to play the 49ers in week one; host Dallas in week two before playing at Arizona in week three and conclude the preseason at home vs. the Rams in week four.  I like the Raiders chances in week one and week four better than trying to defeat Parcells or Dennis Green!

My next coaching profile will focus on Dennis Green of the Arizona Cardinals followed by features on Tom Coughlin and Joe Gibbs.