Start & Stop Drills, the Early Bye Weeks.
Part One.
by Greg Dempson



I noticed a developing pattern about teams that have a bye week early in the season. The NFL adopted the bye week in 1990. Traditionally the better teams had a bye early in the season and the teams that didn’t perform well the previous year had their bye week later in the season. Of course there are exceptions, the Chargers had a natural week 2 bye last season and they certainly weren’t juggernauts in 2000.

As seasons start, defense is usually ahead of offense. So I wondered what happened when a team started then stopped due to a bye early in the season. I excluded the Patriots and Dolphins in the 1992 campaign, as their week 1 bye was a late postponement of a regularly scheduled week 1game due to a hurricane. I also excluded all teams from last season with the exception of the Chargers. San Diego had a natural bye scheduled in week 2 but don’t qualify in this system as they didn’t have enough straight up wins the previous season. The other 30 teams were off due to the 9/11 tragedy, hence an unscheduled bye.

So, continuing with the assumption that early teams off a bye were superior, I wondered how they performed if they were an early road favorite. The answer is not very well.

When a team won at least 6 games straight up the previous season and is a road favorite, off a bye, in weeks 3, 4 or 5 of the current season; play against them

We are fading a road favorite whom played 1, 2 or 3 games, had a bye and now play on the road as a favorite. With at least 6 wins the previous season our play against team was competitive and in most instances in the chart below, played in the previous years playoffs. Backing the dog in this spot has been rewarding. Starting then stopping early in the season has been a problem for road teams in this instance,"When you stay ready, you don’t have to get ready." The dog was ready and actually won 6 out of the 11 games straight up and more importantly covered in 10 out of the 11 games.

P.Y.R. = previous years record, straight up. Example in the first game in the system, the 49ers went 14 – 2 in 1989.

C.S.R. = current seasons record. The 49ers record at the start of the 1990 season was 3 – 0 straight up before the traveled to Carolina in week 5.

Also note the 4 out of the 5 dogs with losing records won straight up. The Cardinals and Raiders in ’92, the Saints in ’94, the Bears in ’99 and only the Steelers lost straight up but covered in 2000. The only loser in this system was Detroit who was 3 – 1 straight up and met the Vikings whom were 3 – 0 straight up. With first place on the line the Vikings didn’t take their opponent lightly.

10 – 01 = 91% ATS.

#

P.Y.R.

Year

Wk.

C.S.R

Road Favorite

Line

Site

Opponent

Score

ATS

C.S.R.

1.

14–02

1990

5

3–0

49ers

-5½

at

Oilers

24–21

won

2–2

2.

14–02

1992

5

2–1

Redskins

-10½

at

Cardinals

24–27

won

0–3

3.

08–08

1992

5

1–2

Giants

-1

at

Raiders

10–13

won

0–4

4.

11–05

1994

5

3–0

Giants

-2

at

Saints

22–27

won

1–3

5.

10–06

1995

5

3–0

Dolphins

-11

at

Bengals

26–23

won

2–2

6.

11–05

1996

4

2–0

49ers

-10

at

Panthers

07–23

won

2–0

7.

10–06

1998

5

2–1

Patriots

-7

at

Saints

30–27

won

3–0

8.

06–10

1999

4

1–1

Saints

-1

at

Bears

10–14

won

1–2

9.

06–10

2000

3

0–1

Steelers

-2

at

Browns

20–23

won

1–1

10.

14–02

2000

4

0–2

Titans

-7

at

Steelers

23–20

won

0–2

11.

10–06

2000

5

3–0

Vikings

-1½

at

Lions

31–24

lost

3–1

12.

12–04

2002

4

?

Eagles

-2½

at

Bills

 

 

 


If the Dolphins get off to a great start and the Giants falter out of the gate; there might be a slight chance that Miami would be laying a point at the Meadowlands in week 5 as well.





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