The Not So Dirty Dozen

The Not So Dirty Dozen

Most teams normally start the season by playing better defense than offense. Any time you ask a team to lay big wood early in the season, you asking for problems; especially in this instance.
First off the line may be slightly inflated because of the underdog’s 0–2 start. Another problem is the home team may soften up on defense; hence a back door cover or they just might not take their opponent too seriously. Perhaps there’s bigger fish to fry next weekend.

When you review all the games in this chart you’ll notice that the dog kept the score within single digits or won the game outright in 11 out of 14 times.
In the 2000 season the 49ers number bounced from 16.5 to 17 and was at 17.5 before settling back to 17.
Once again the numbers from the games played before 1980 are not listed and the N/P indicates not posted. All the games in the 1970’s saw the dog getting more than 12 points. The Buccaneers were actually getting more than 3 touchdowns in their 1977 game at Dallas.

Chart # 123.
When a team started the season at 0 – 2 straight up and are a week 3 road dog of more than 12-points, play ON the dog. (No plays in strike years of 1982 & 1987 or last year due to week 2 bye.)

13 – 0 – 1 = 100% ATS.

#	Prior Results	Year	Wk	Play On Dog	Line	Site	Opponent	Score	ATS
1.	00 – 13, 06 – 26	1977	3	Bills	N/P	at	Colts	14–17	won
2.	03 – 13, 03 – 09	1977	3	Buccaneers	N/P	at	Cowboys	07–23	won
3.	00 – 38, 00 – 42	1978	3	Colts	N/P	at	Patriots	34–27	won
4.	17 – 28, 20 – 21	1978	3	Bills	N/P	at	Dolphins	24–31	won
5.	22 – 28, 13 – 21	1979	3	S. F. 49ers	N/P	at	Rams	24–27	won
6.	00 – 21, 06 – 17	1985	3	Eagles	+14	at	Redskins	19–06	won
7.	17 – 31, 21 – 29	1988	3	Falcons	+14	at	49ers	34–17	won
8.	17 – 31, 21 – 29	1992	3	Browns	+12½	at	Raiders	28–16	won
9.	07 – 23, 14 – 31	1992	3	Cardinals	+ 14½	at	Cowboys	20–31	won
10.	13 – 30, 31 – 34	1993	3	Falcons	+13	at	49ers	30–37	won
11.	06 – 31, 07 – 21	1996	3	Jets	+13½	at	Dolphins	27–36	won
12.	03 – 34, 06 – 21	1996	3	Buccaneers	+ 13½	at	Broncos	23–27	won
13.	00 – 43, 09 – 26	1999	3	Browns	+ 12½	at	Ravens	10–17	won
14.	28 – 36, 22 – 38	2000	3	S. F. 49ers	+17	at	Rams	24–41	push