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The Good, The Bad & The Ugly.
Part One.

Handicapping doesn’t have to be rocket science; sometimes the odds maker or bookie does the work for us. You just have to know when and when not to play on certain teams. Just as there are good situations to make wagers on bad teams there are also good times to fade these losers even if we must lay big wood.

I have hundreds and hundreds of charts that I ponder over. I find it much easier to "see" situations when I write them down. In essence it is the beginning of a system or a heads up for my daily football analysis. I find these tools or charts especially useful at the start of a new season.

Situation # 1, Chart A.

When is a good time to wager against a bad team? This scenario features a good team Vs an ugly one. In some sports they invoke a mercy rule. Not in the NFL as the elite will run steam-role over an inferior opponent. At half time the superior team doesn’t let up when they return for the second half. Like in those old westerns, the coach says, "Innkeeper, fresh horses and water for my men!" And they come out of the locker room ready to ride.

When a team started the season at 0 – 3 straight up and are a week 4 road dog Vs a foe that’s 3 – 0 straight up; play against the road dog.

This is one time where laying big chalk won’t hurt you. You have a team that is winless and a road dog in week 4 play. The home team at 3 – 0 straight up doesn’t want to let this team have any hope of crawling back into contention. If you were to blindly assume that taking all those big points might in fact help you, guess again. When you chart these circumstances and review the past 3 games that each team played, it’s a no brainier. The superior team delivers the knockout punch.

Not a lot of plays in this chart, but the road dogs are only 1 – 7 ATS. With a limited amount of occurrences, I would never base a play solely on this chart. Of interest is the superior teams’ ability to shut down the 0 – 3 team. Not one of the 8 losers scored 14-points.

N/P in the line box for the early year’s means not published. I am working on two books containing the NFL point-spread history. Stay tuned!

7 – 1 ATS when playing against the road team.

#	0–3 Team Scores	Year	Wk.	0-3 Team	Line	Site	3-0 Team	Score	ATS
1.	00–30, 13–20, 10–30	1974	4	Baltimore Colts	N/P	at	Patriots	03-42	won
2.	00–07, 14–22, 07–36	1975	4	New England Patriots	N/P	at	Bengals	10–27	won
3.	17–21, 07–23, 28–37	1977	4	Kansas City Chiefs	N/P	at	Broncos	07–23	won
4.	00–14, 26–29, 10–13	1979	4	Baltimore Colts	N/P	at	Steelers	13–17	lost
5	10–26, 07–17, 30–40	1981	4	Washington Redskins	+9	at	Eagles	13–36	won
6.	27– 8, 16–35, 28–44	1985	4	Atlanta Falcons	+9½	at	L. A. Rams	06–17	won
7.	10–24, 13–21, 06–23	1992	4	San Diego Chargers	+11	at	Oilers	00–21	won
8.	24–38, 24–27, 07–32	1997	4	Chicago Bears	+12½	at	Patriots	03–31	won

Our second situation and Chart B will be posted on Monday.